The constitutional amendment process required to repeal or alter the 22nd Amendment creates the dominant barrier, demanding two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. As of September 2026, no such legislation has advanced beyond limited introductions, and President Trump has publicly stated that the law remains very strong against a third term. Midterm elections scheduled for November further constrain prospects for securing the necessary supermajorities in the current Congress. Trader consensus at 97.6% against reflects these institutional thresholds and the absence of coordinated momentum. Only an unforeseen shift, such as rapid bipartisan agreement after the midterms or an extraordinary institutional development before December 31, could realistically alter the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$13,141 Vol.
$13,141 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$13,141 Vol.
$13,141 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional amendment process required to repeal or alter the 22nd Amendment creates the dominant barrier, demanding two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. As of September 2026, no such legislation has advanced beyond limited introductions, and President Trump has publicly stated that the law remains very strong against a third term. Midterm elections scheduled for November further constrain prospects for securing the necessary supermajorities in the current Congress. Trader consensus at 97.6% against reflects these institutional thresholds and the absence of coordinated momentum. Only an unforeseen shift, such as rapid bipartisan agreement after the midterms or an extraordinary institutional development before December 31, could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$13,141Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional amendment process required to repeal or alter the 22nd Amendment creates the dominant barrier, demanding two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. As of September 2026, no such legislation has advanced beyond limited introductions, and President Trump has publicly stated that the law remains very strong against a third term. Midterm elections scheduled for November further constrain prospects for securing the necessary supermajorities in the current Congress. Trader consensus at 97.6% against reflects these institutional thresholds and the absence of coordinated momentum. Only an unforeseen shift, such as rapid bipartisan agreement after the midterms or an extraordinary institutional development before December 31, could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volumen
$13,141Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The constitutional amendment process required to repeal or alter the 22nd Amendment creates the dominant barrier, demanding two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. As of September 2026, no such legislation has advanced beyond limited introductions, and President Trump has publicly stated that the law remains very strong against a third term. Midterm elections scheduled for November further constrain prospects for securing the necessary supermajorities in the current Congress. Trader consensus at 97.6% against reflects these institutional thresholds and the absence of coordinated momentum. Only an unforeseen shift, such as rapid bipartisan agreement after the midterms or an extraordinary institutional development before December 31, could realistically alter the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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