The dominant trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability on an 85–90 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for CDC FluSurv-NET Week 22 reflects the established late-season decline in the 2025–2026 epidemic. Official surveillance shows weekly rates falling to 0.2–0.5 per 100,000 by mid-May, with cumulative totals advancing only modestly from 84.5 in Week 14 to 86.3 in Week 18 amid negligible new admissions. This pattern aligns with historical post-peak trajectories, where minimal additions occur after the winter surge driven primarily by influenza A(H3N2). The market’s skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates CDC’s preliminary and final reporting timelines, with resolution hinging on confirmed cumulative figures through the week ending around June 12. A late, unexpected resurgence sufficient to push totals into the 90–95 or higher bands remains the principal uncertainty, though current model consensus and seasonal timing make such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 22, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 22, 2026?
85–90 98.4%
95–100 <1%
<80 <1%
90–95 <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 12, 2026
<80
<1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
98%
90–95
<1%
95–100
1%
100+
<1%
85–90 98.4%
95–100 <1%
<80 <1%
90–95 <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 12, 2026
<80
$418 Обс.
<1%
80–85
$426 Обс.
<1%
85–90
$1,635 Обс.
98%
90–95
$380 Обс.
<1%
95–100
$391 Обс.
1%
100+
$387 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The dominant trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability on an 85–90 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for CDC FluSurv-NET Week 22 reflects the established late-season decline in the 2025–2026 epidemic. Official surveillance shows weekly rates falling to 0.2–0.5 per 100,000 by mid-May, with cumulative totals advancing only modestly from 84.5 in Week 14 to 86.3 in Week 18 amid negligible new admissions. This pattern aligns with historical post-peak trajectories, where minimal additions occur after the winter surge driven primarily by influenza A(H3N2). The market’s skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates CDC’s preliminary and final reporting timelines, with resolution hinging on confirmed cumulative figures through the week ending around June 12. A late, unexpected resurgence sufficient to push totals into the 90–95 or higher bands remains the principal uncertainty, though current model consensus and seasonal timing make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,638Дата завершення
Jun 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The dominant trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability on an 85–90 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for CDC FluSurv-NET Week 22 reflects the established late-season decline in the 2025–2026 epidemic. Official surveillance shows weekly rates falling to 0.2–0.5 per 100,000 by mid-May, with cumulative totals advancing only modestly from 84.5 in Week 14 to 86.3 in Week 18 amid negligible new admissions. This pattern aligns with historical post-peak trajectories, where minimal additions occur after the winter surge driven primarily by influenza A(H3N2). The market’s skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates CDC’s preliminary and final reporting timelines, with resolution hinging on confirmed cumulative figures through the week ending around June 12. A late, unexpected resurgence sufficient to push totals into the 90–95 or higher bands remains the principal uncertainty, though current model consensus and seasonal timing make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Обсяг
$3,638Дата завершення
Jun 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability on an 85–90 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for CDC FluSurv-NET Week 22 reflects the established late-season decline in the 2025–2026 epidemic. Official surveillance shows weekly rates falling to 0.2–0.5 per 100,000 by mid-May, with cumulative totals advancing only modestly from 84.5 in Week 14 to 86.3 in Week 18 amid negligible new admissions. This pattern aligns with historical post-peak trajectories, where minimal additions occur after the winter surge driven primarily by influenza A(H3N2). The market’s skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates CDC’s preliminary and final reporting timelines, with resolution hinging on confirmed cumulative figures through the week ending around June 12. A late, unexpected resurgence sufficient to push totals into the 90–95 or higher bands remains the principal uncertainty, though current model consensus and seasonal timing make such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання