Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 1?
28°C 42%
27°C 40%
26°C 14%
29°C 6%
NEU
NEU
1. Juli 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
14%
27°C
40%
28°C
42%
29°C
6%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
28°C 42%
27°C 40%
26°C 14%
29°C 6%
NEU
NEU
1. Juli 2026
21°C or below
$523 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$406 Vol.
1%
23°C
$381 Vol.
1%
24°C
$344 Vol.
1%
25°C
$306 Vol.
3%
26°C
$713 Vol.
14%
27°C
$750 Vol.
40%
28°C
$610 Vol.
42%
29°C
$280 Vol.
6%
30°C
$383 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$420 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volumen
$5,103Enddatum
1. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,103Enddatum
1. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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