Trump’s short list for the next Supreme Court vacancy features several circuit judges appointed during his first term, with James Ho, Aileen Cannon, Andrew Oldham, and Gregory Katsas among the leading names in trader pricing. No seat is currently vacant, though reports have referenced possible retirements such as Justice Alito’s, keeping probabilities dispersed as the White House maintains a broad, pre-vetted roster rather than signaling a frontrunner. Recent lower-court nomination activity and midterm pressure on Senate control add uncertainty around confirmation timelines, while Trump’s public criticism of some prior appointees underscores the emphasis on demonstrated alignment. These factors sustain a tight field where small shifts in administration signaling or vacancy timing could quickly reorder the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 10.6%
Amul Thapar 10%
NEW
NEW
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
19%
Andrew Oldham
13%
Gregory Katsas
11%
Amul Thapar
10%
Patrick Bumatay
9%
Steven Menashi
8%
Neomi Rao
7%
Aileen Cannon
17%
John Sauer
6%
Mike Lee
6%
Ted Cruz
13%
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 10.6%
Amul Thapar 10%
NEW
NEW
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
$645 Vol.
19%
Andrew Oldham
$638 Vol.
13%
Gregory Katsas
$175 Vol.
11%
Amul Thapar
$944 Vol.
10%
Patrick Bumatay
$1,604 Vol.
9%
Steven Menashi
$105 Vol.
8%
Neomi Rao
$109 Vol.
7%
Aileen Cannon
$346 Vol.
17%
John Sauer
$121 Vol.
6%
Mike Lee
$125 Vol.
6%
Ted Cruz
$160 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trump’s short list for the next Supreme Court vacancy features several circuit judges appointed during his first term, with James Ho, Aileen Cannon, Andrew Oldham, and Gregory Katsas among the leading names in trader pricing. No seat is currently vacant, though reports have referenced possible retirements such as Justice Alito’s, keeping probabilities dispersed as the White House maintains a broad, pre-vetted roster rather than signaling a frontrunner. Recent lower-court nomination activity and midterm pressure on Senate control add uncertainty around confirmation timelines, while Trump’s public criticism of some prior appointees underscores the emphasis on demonstrated alignment. These factors sustain a tight field where small shifts in administration signaling or vacancy timing could quickly reorder the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,971End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trump’s short list for the next Supreme Court vacancy features several circuit judges appointed during his first term, with James Ho, Aileen Cannon, Andrew Oldham, and Gregory Katsas among the leading names in trader pricing. No seat is currently vacant, though reports have referenced possible retirements such as Justice Alito’s, keeping probabilities dispersed as the White House maintains a broad, pre-vetted roster rather than signaling a frontrunner. Recent lower-court nomination activity and midterm pressure on Senate control add uncertainty around confirmation timelines, while Trump’s public criticism of some prior appointees underscores the emphasis on demonstrated alignment. These factors sustain a tight field where small shifts in administration signaling or vacancy timing could quickly reorder the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,971End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trump’s short list for the next Supreme Court vacancy features several circuit judges appointed during his first term, with James Ho, Aileen Cannon, Andrew Oldham, and Gregory Katsas among the leading names in trader pricing. No seat is currently vacant, though reports have referenced possible retirements such as Justice Alito’s, keeping probabilities dispersed as the White House maintains a broad, pre-vetted roster rather than signaling a frontrunner. Recent lower-court nomination activity and midterm pressure on Senate control add uncertainty around confirmation timelines, while Trump’s public criticism of some prior appointees underscores the emphasis on demonstrated alignment. These factors sustain a tight field where small shifts in administration signaling or vacancy timing could quickly reorder the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions