Recent data-mined files point to a Compendium 2026 launch window opening around July 17, shortly after the Esports World Cup Dota 2 bracket begins on July 7 in Paris, creating a narrow timing gap that keeps the market near even. Valve has not issued an official release date, leaving traders reliant on placeholder dates and historical patterns of last-minute adjustments near The International group stage. EWC scheduling overlaps with qualifiers and regional events that could accelerate or delay the battle pass rollout, while any confirmed July 10–15 announcement or further file updates would quickly shift implied probabilities. The slim 51.5% lean toward “No” reflects this balance between expected mid-July timing and the risk of earlier deployment or slippage.