Recent injury concerns have tempered expectations for Lionel Messi’s set-piece involvement at the 2026 World Cup. The 38-year-old was forced off clutching his left leg during Inter Miami’s final MLS outing in late May, prompting questions about his fitness just weeks before Argentina’s campaign. While included in the defending champions’ squad, Messi’s minutes are likely to be managed carefully amid a deep attacking roster. Direct free-kick goals remain low-probability events even for specialists, and his recent output has emphasized playmaking over dead-ball conversions. Traders price “No” at 79% to reflect these physical and tactical realities heading into the tournament.