With several European powerhouses displaying strong recent form and deep squads ahead of the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, trader consensus reflects a tight race among France, Spain, and England. Spain's near-flawless qualification campaign and tactical cohesion under recent success position them as slight co-leaders, while France benefits from elite depth and attacking talent. Argentina's defending-champion experience and Brazil's traditional pedigree add to the balance, with Portugal and Germany not far behind based on head-to-head trends and group-stage paths. The bunched probabilities around 8-18% highlight how minor shifts in fitness or early-tournament results could quickly alter implied probabilities across the field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrance 18.3%
Espagne 16.7%
Angleterre 11.3%
Brésil 9.2%
$1,012,265,246 Vol.
$1,012,265,246 Vol.
20 juil. 2026
France
18%
Espagne
17%
Angleterre
11%
Brésil
9%
Argentine
8%
Portugal
8%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Suisse
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Turquie
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
France 18.3%
Espagne 16.7%
Angleterre 11.3%
Brésil 9.2%
$1,012,265,246 Vol.
$1,012,265,246 Vol.
20 juil. 2026
France
$27,224,604 Vol.
18%
Espagne
$21,357,646 Vol.
17%
Angleterre
$17,552,210 Vol.
11%
Brésil
$18,882,984 Vol.
9%
Argentine
$18,460,794 Vol.
8%
Portugal
$20,178,273 Vol.
8%
Allemagne
$17,192,701 Vol.
5%
Pays-Bas
$19,283,599 Vol.
3%
Norvège
$17,766,768 Vol.
2%
Japon
$22,035,569 Vol.
2%
Belgique
$16,851,005 Vol.
2%
Colombie
$15,732,340 Vol.
2%
États-Unis
$32,313,214 Vol.
2%
Maroc
$20,672,100 Vol.
2%
Suisse
$18,497,672 Vol.
1%
Uruguay
$17,947,110 Vol.
1%
Mexique
$19,622,071 Vol.
1%
Croatie
$21,544,200 Vol.
1%
Équateur
$21,975,073 Vol.
1%
Sénégal
$17,606,583 Vol.
1%
Turquie
$10,984,045 Vol.
1%
Autriche
$18,777,146 Vol.
1%
Suède
$9,941,251 Vol.
1%
Canada
$23,048,852 Vol.
<1%
Corée du Sud
$24,530,121 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$19,721,669 Vol.
<1%
Écosse
$18,679,234 Vol.
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
$23,362,054 Vol.
<1%
Égypte
$23,772,931 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$18,246,418 Vol.
<1%
Algérie
$21,922,168 Vol.
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
$10,800,854 Vol.
<1%
Tchéquie
$9,495,037 Vol.
<1%
Australie
$23,921,694 Vol.
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
$31,144,613 Vol.
<1%
Haïti
$18,012,532 Vol.
<1%
Jordanie
$26,145,585 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$36,708,852 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$24,895,749 Vol.
<1%
Tunisie
$22,370,369 Vol.
<1%
Ouzbékistan
$39,007,491 Vol.
<1%
Panama
$13,130,562 Vol.
<1%
Irak
$12,717,706 Vol.
<1%
Afrique du Sud
$27,146,346 Vol.
<1%
RD Congo
$16,527,531 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$23,157,977 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$24,775,166 Vol.
<1%
Arabie saoudite
$27,735,299 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With several European powerhouses displaying strong recent form and deep squads ahead of the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, trader consensus reflects a tight race among France, Spain, and England. Spain's near-flawless qualification campaign and tactical cohesion under recent success position them as slight co-leaders, while France benefits from elite depth and attacking talent. Argentina's defending-champion experience and Brazil's traditional pedigree add to the balance, with Portugal and Germany not far behind based on head-to-head trends and group-stage paths. The bunched probabilities around 8-18% highlight how minor shifts in fitness or early-tournament results could quickly alter implied probabilities across the field.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$1,012,265,246Date de fin
20 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With several European powerhouses displaying strong recent form and deep squads ahead of the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, trader consensus reflects a tight race among France, Spain, and England. Spain's near-flawless qualification campaign and tactical cohesion under recent success position them as slight co-leaders, while France benefits from elite depth and attacking talent. Argentina's defending-champion experience and Brazil's traditional pedigree add to the balance, with Portugal and Germany not far behind based on head-to-head trends and group-stage paths. The bunched probabilities around 8-18% highlight how minor shifts in fitness or early-tournament results could quickly alter implied probabilities across the field.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,012,265,246Date de fin
20 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With several European powerhouses displaying strong recent form and deep squads ahead of the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, trader consensus reflects a tight race among France, Spain, and England. Spain's near-flawless qualification campaign and tactical cohesion under recent success position them as slight co-leaders, while France benefits from elite depth and attacking talent. Argentina's defending-champion experience and Brazil's traditional pedigree add to the balance, with Portugal and Germany not far behind based on head-to-head trends and group-stage paths. The bunched probabilities around 8-18% highlight how minor shifts in fitness or early-tournament results could quickly alter implied probabilities across the field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes