Recent national generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 7–9 points on average, with some surveys reaching double digits, directly supporting trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins of 6–12% for the 2026 House election. This environment stems from President Trump’s approval ratings near 38%, combined with voter concerns over tariffs, inflation, and foreign policy developments, which have boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout expectations. Republicans benefit from favorable redistricting in several states, yet the national swing has expanded the competitive map and limited GOP recovery in polling aggregates. These dynamics explain the concentration of probability on mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic edges, while “Other” captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late shifts, or narrower outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMidterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Démocrates 8-10 % 28%
Démocrates 10-12 % 23%
Démocrates 6-8 % 19%
Démocrates 4-6 % 11%
$138,609 Vol.
$138,609 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Démocrates 16 %+
1%
Démocrates 14-16 %
3%
Démocrates 12-14 %
7%
Démocrates 10-12 %
23%
Démocrates 8-10 %
28%
Démocrates 6-8 %
19%
Démocrates 4-6 %
11%
Démocrates 2-4 %
6%
Démocrates 0-2 %
2%
Républicains 0-2 %
4%
Républicains 2-4 %
3%
Républicains 4-6 %
1%
Républicains 6 %+
1%
Démocrates 8-10 % 28%
Démocrates 10-12 % 23%
Démocrates 6-8 % 19%
Démocrates 4-6 % 11%
$138,609 Vol.
$138,609 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Démocrates 16 %+
$3,766 Vol.
1%
Démocrates 14-16 %
$3,528 Vol.
3%
Démocrates 12-14 %
$4,742 Vol.
7%
Démocrates 10-12 %
$9,165 Vol.
23%
Démocrates 8-10 %
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Démocrates 6-8 %
$15,876 Vol.
19%
Démocrates 4-6 %
$7,060 Vol.
11%
Démocrates 2-4 %
$15,812 Vol.
6%
Démocrates 0-2 %
$20,062 Vol.
2%
Républicains 0-2 %
$5,981 Vol.
4%
Républicains 2-4 %
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Républicains 4-6 %
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Républicains 6 %+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 7–9 points on average, with some surveys reaching double digits, directly supporting trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins of 6–12% for the 2026 House election. This environment stems from President Trump’s approval ratings near 38%, combined with voter concerns over tariffs, inflation, and foreign policy developments, which have boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout expectations. Republicans benefit from favorable redistricting in several states, yet the national swing has expanded the competitive map and limited GOP recovery in polling aggregates. These dynamics explain the concentration of probability on mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic edges, while “Other” captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late shifts, or narrower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$138,609Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 7–9 points on average, with some surveys reaching double digits, directly supporting trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins of 6–12% for the 2026 House election. This environment stems from President Trump’s approval ratings near 38%, combined with voter concerns over tariffs, inflation, and foreign policy developments, which have boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout expectations. Republicans benefit from favorable redistricting in several states, yet the national swing has expanded the competitive map and limited GOP recovery in polling aggregates. These dynamics explain the concentration of probability on mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic edges, while “Other” captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late shifts, or narrower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$138,609Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent national generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 7–9 points on average, with some surveys reaching double digits, directly supporting trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins of 6–12% for the 2026 House election. This environment stems from President Trump’s approval ratings near 38%, combined with voter concerns over tariffs, inflation, and foreign policy developments, which have boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout expectations. Republicans benefit from favorable redistricting in several states, yet the national swing has expanded the competitive map and limited GOP recovery in polling aggregates. These dynamics explain the concentration of probability on mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic edges, while “Other” captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late shifts, or narrower outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Y aura-t-il entre 125 millions et 130 millions de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis en 2026 ?
22%
Oui
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
25%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 0%-20%?
34%
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