Recent generic ballot polling averages showing a Democratic lead of roughly 7 points, fueled by low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent and widespread voter frustration with economic conditions, underpin trader pricing across Democratic margin outcomes. The leading "Other" category at 45.5 percent reflects substantial uncertainty over the precise national popular vote spread, as turnout patterns among independents, younger voters, and key demographics remain fluid with six weeks until Election Day. Recent surveys from sources including the New York Times/Siena and YouGov/Economist have reinforced this edge without locking in a narrow band, while smaller Republican margin probabilities align with historical midterm swings that could still narrow the gap through late-cycle shifts in enthusiasm or events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMidterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Démocrates 8-10 % 28%
Démocrates 6-8 % 21%
Démocrates 10-12 % 20%
Démocrates 4-6 % 12%
$135,727 Vol.
$135,727 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Démocrates 16 %+
1%
Démocrates 14-16 %
2%
Démocrates 12-14 %
7%
Démocrates 10-12 %
20%
Démocrates 8-10 %
28%
Démocrates 6-8 %
21%
Démocrates 4-6 %
12%
Démocrates 2-4 %
6%
Démocrates 0-2 %
2%
Républicains 0-2 %
4%
Républicains 2-4 %
3%
Républicains 4-6 %
1%
Républicains 6 %+
1%
Démocrates 8-10 % 28%
Démocrates 6-8 % 21%
Démocrates 10-12 % 20%
Démocrates 4-6 % 12%
$135,727 Vol.
$135,727 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Démocrates 16 %+
$3,561 Vol.
1%
Démocrates 14-16 %
$3,412 Vol.
2%
Démocrates 12-14 %
$4,633 Vol.
7%
Démocrates 10-12 %
$8,975 Vol.
20%
Démocrates 8-10 %
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Démocrates 6-8 %
$15,674 Vol.
21%
Démocrates 4-6 %
$7,010 Vol.
12%
Démocrates 2-4 %
$15,637 Vol.
6%
Démocrates 0-2 %
$18,277 Vol.
2%
Républicains 0-2 %
$5,931 Vol.
4%
Républicains 2-4 %
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Républicains 4-6 %
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Républicains 6 %+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages showing a Democratic lead of roughly 7 points, fueled by low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent and widespread voter frustration with economic conditions, underpin trader pricing across Democratic margin outcomes. The leading "Other" category at 45.5 percent reflects substantial uncertainty over the precise national popular vote spread, as turnout patterns among independents, younger voters, and key demographics remain fluid with six weeks until Election Day. Recent surveys from sources including the New York Times/Siena and YouGov/Economist have reinforced this edge without locking in a narrow band, while smaller Republican margin probabilities align with historical midterm swings that could still narrow the gap through late-cycle shifts in enthusiasm or events.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$135,727Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages showing a Democratic lead of roughly 7 points, fueled by low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent and widespread voter frustration with economic conditions, underpin trader pricing across Democratic margin outcomes. The leading "Other" category at 45.5 percent reflects substantial uncertainty over the precise national popular vote spread, as turnout patterns among independents, younger voters, and key demographics remain fluid with six weeks until Election Day. Recent surveys from sources including the New York Times/Siena and YouGov/Economist have reinforced this edge without locking in a narrow band, while smaller Republican margin probabilities align with historical midterm swings that could still narrow the gap through late-cycle shifts in enthusiasm or events.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$135,727Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling averages showing a Democratic lead of roughly 7 points, fueled by low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent and widespread voter frustration with economic conditions, underpin trader pricing across Democratic margin outcomes. The leading "Other" category at 45.5 percent reflects substantial uncertainty over the precise national popular vote spread, as turnout patterns among independents, younger voters, and key demographics remain fluid with six weeks until Election Day. Recent surveys from sources including the New York Times/Siena and YouGov/Economist have reinforced this edge without locking in a narrow band, while smaller Republican margin probabilities align with historical midterm swings that could still narrow the gap through late-cycle shifts in enthusiasm or events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Y aura-t-il entre 125 millions et 130 millions de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis en 2026 ?
23%
Oui
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
24%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 50%-55%?
29%
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