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icon for Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Politique·Démocrates

Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre

icon for Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Politique·Démocrates

Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre

Démocrates 8-10 % 15%

Démocrates 10-12 % 13%

Républicains 0-2 % 9.6%

Démocrates 6-8 % 8%

Polymarket

$34,848 Vol.

Démocrates 8-10 % 15%

Démocrates 10-12 % 13%

Républicains 0-2 % 9.6%

Démocrates 6-8 % 8%

Polymarket

$34,848 Vol.

icon for Démocrates 16 %+

Démocrates 16 %+

$804 Vol.

3%

icon for Démocrates 14-16 %

Démocrates 14-16 %

$476 Vol.

3%

icon for Démocrates 12-14 %

Démocrates 12-14 %

$462 Vol.

4%

icon for Démocrates 10-12 %

Démocrates 10-12 %

$830 Vol.

13%

icon for Démocrates 8-10 %

Démocrates 8-10 %

$1,555 Vol.

15%

icon for Démocrates 6-8 %

Démocrates 6-8 %

$693 Vol.

8%

icon for Démocrates 4-6 %

Démocrates 4-6 %

$258 Vol.

7%

icon for Démocrates 2-4 %

Démocrates 2-4 %

$1,012 Vol.

3%

icon for Démocrates 0-2 %

Démocrates 0-2 %

$889 Vol.

5%

icon for Républicains 0-2 %

Républicains 0-2 %

$864 Vol.

10%

icon for Républicains 2-4 %

Républicains 2-4 %

$26,019 Vol.

8%

icon for Républicains 4-6 %

Républicains 4-6 %

$230 Vol.

2%

icon for Républicains 6 %+

Républicains 6 %+

$757 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by roughly six points nationally, positioning a Democratic House popular vote advantage as the consensus trader view for the 2026 midterms. This reflects the typical midterm swing against the president's party, amplified by a record number of Republican open seats and Virginia's April 2026 redistricting that favors Democrats in most districts. Traders price the tightest Democratic margins between 8 and 12 points highest among specified outcomes because historical patterns and current fundraising data point to a modest rather than decisive national shift, while the broad "Other" category leads overall due to uncertainty around wider swings or narrower Republican holds. Scheduled primaries and ongoing state map adjustments remain key variables that could alter these implied probabilities before November.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.

For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.

If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,848
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by roughly six points nationally, positioning a Democratic House popular vote advantage as the consensus trader view for the 2026 midterms. This reflects the typical midterm swing against the president's party, amplified by a record number of Republican open seats and Virginia's April 2026 redistricting that favors Democrats in most districts. Traders price the tightest Democratic margins between 8 and 12 points highest among specified outcomes because historical patterns and current fundraising data point to a modest rather than decisive national shift, while the broad "Other" category leads overall due to uncertainty around wider swings or narrower Republican holds. Scheduled primaries and ongoing state map adjustments remain key variables that could alter these implied probabilities before November.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.

For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.

If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,848
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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Questions fréquentes

« Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Démocrates 8-10 % » à 14%, suivi de « Démocrates 10-12 % » à 13%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre » a généré $34.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 19, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre » est « Démocrates 8-10 % » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Démocrates 10-12 % » à 13%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.