Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by roughly six points nationally, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party and positioning an eight-to-twelve-point Democratic popular-vote margin as the most probable specific outcome among listed buckets. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Texas have altered individual district lines without directly shifting the national vote total, while sustained Democratic advantages in fundraising and voter engagement have reinforced expectations of a moderate edge. High trading volume on "Other" captures remaining uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle events, and potential swings in voter sentiment before November 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMidterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Midterms 2026 : Marge de victoire du vote populaire à la Chambre
Démocrates 8-10 % 15%
Démocrates 10-12 % 13%
Républicains 0-2 % 9.6%
Démocrates 6-8 % 9%
$34,848 Vol.
$34,848 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrates 16 %+
3%
Démocrates 14-16 %
4%
Démocrates 12-14 %
3%
Démocrates 10-12 %
13%
Démocrates 8-10 %
15%
Démocrates 6-8 %
9%
Démocrates 4-6 %
7%
Démocrates 2-4 %
3%
Démocrates 0-2 %
5%
Républicains 0-2 %
10%
Républicains 2-4 %
8%
Républicains 4-6 %
2%
Républicains 6 %+
3%
Démocrates 8-10 % 15%
Démocrates 10-12 % 13%
Républicains 0-2 % 9.6%
Démocrates 6-8 % 9%
$34,848 Vol.
$34,848 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrates 16 %+
$804 Vol.
3%
Démocrates 14-16 %
$476 Vol.
4%
Démocrates 12-14 %
$462 Vol.
3%
Démocrates 10-12 %
$830 Vol.
13%
Démocrates 8-10 %
$1,555 Vol.
15%
Démocrates 6-8 %
$693 Vol.
9%
Démocrates 4-6 %
$258 Vol.
7%
Démocrates 2-4 %
$1,012 Vol.
3%
Démocrates 0-2 %
$889 Vol.
5%
Républicains 0-2 %
$864 Vol.
10%
Républicains 2-4 %
$26,019 Vol.
8%
Républicains 4-6 %
$230 Vol.
2%
Républicains 6 %+
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by roughly six points nationally, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party and positioning an eight-to-twelve-point Democratic popular-vote margin as the most probable specific outcome among listed buckets. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Texas have altered individual district lines without directly shifting the national vote total, while sustained Democratic advantages in fundraising and voter engagement have reinforced expectations of a moderate edge. High trading volume on "Other" captures remaining uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle events, and potential swings in voter sentiment before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$34,848Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by roughly six points nationally, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party and positioning an eight-to-twelve-point Democratic popular-vote margin as the most probable specific outcome among listed buckets. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Texas have altered individual district lines without directly shifting the national vote total, while sustained Democratic advantages in fundraising and voter engagement have reinforced expectations of a moderate edge. High trading volume on "Other" captures remaining uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle events, and potential swings in voter sentiment before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,848Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by roughly six points nationally, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party and positioning an eight-to-twelve-point Democratic popular-vote margin as the most probable specific outcome among listed buckets. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Texas have altered individual district lines without directly shifting the national vote total, while sustained Democratic advantages in fundraising and voter engagement have reinforced expectations of a moderate edge. High trading volume on "Other" captures remaining uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle events, and potential swings in voter sentiment before November 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes