Elevated Democratic enthusiasm as the opposition party in a Trump second-term midterm, combined with expanded mail and early voting access, anchors trader expectations for House turnout in the 115-125 million range. Primary and special election data through mid-2026 show Democratic ballots cast well ahead of prior cycles even in Republican-leaning districts, while Republican participation lags, consistent with historical patterns of out-party mobilization. Generic ballot polling around D+6 and youth registration gains add upward pressure relative to lower-turnout midterms, yet polarization and redistricting keep overall participation uncertain. Economic conditions, base mobilization through November, and any late campaign events could shift totals higher or pull them toward the historical 100-115 million baseline.