The upcoming July 7, 2026, Paris Court of Appeals ruling on Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and five-year public office ban remains the dominant factor shaping the field for the April 2027 French presidential election. An upheld decision would bar the National Rally leader and position her protégé Jordan Bardella as the party’s nominee, while a reversal could restore her eligibility. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of his fourth candidacy has clarified the radical left’s position, though moderate left parties are still organizing a unitary primary. On the center-right, Bruno Retailleau secured the Republicans nomination in April, while figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal continue positioning themselves as potential consolidators against the far-right front-runner. These eligibility and coalition developments will determine which candidates ultimately qualify for the ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$53,943 Vol.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
89%

Édouard Philippe
88%

Nathalie Arthaud
83%

Bruno Retailleau
73%

Jordan Bardella
71%

Marine Tondelier
55%

Éric Zemmour
56%

Raphaël Glucksmann
55%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
53%

Dominique de Villepin
50%

François Hollande
45%

Fabien Roussel
49%

David Lisnard
44%

François Ruffin
40%

Gabriel Attal
40%

Sarah Knafo
35%

Marine Le Pen
29%

François Asselineau
28%

Delphine Batho
16%

Matthieu Pigasse
18%

Bernard Cazeneuve
27%

Gérald Darmanin
16%

Manuel Bompard
13%

Juan Branco
15%

Xavier Bertrand
15%

Carole Delga
14%

Jérôme Guedj
12%

Laurent Wauquiez
11%

Jean Castex
10%

Ségolène Royal
10%

Michel-Edouard Leclerc
9%

Sébastien Lecornu
9%

Philippe de Villiers
8%

Élisabeth Borne
7%

Manuel Valls
7%

Jean-Michel Fauvergue
7%

Olivier Faure
13%

Karim Bouamrane
6%

Bally Bagayoko
5%

Clémentine Autain
5%

Mathilde Panot
5%

Valérie Pécresse
4%

François Bayrou
4%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
4%

Teddy Riner
4%

Michel Barnier
3%
$53,943 Vol.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
89%

Édouard Philippe
88%

Nathalie Arthaud
83%

Bruno Retailleau
73%

Jordan Bardella
71%

Marine Tondelier
55%

Éric Zemmour
56%

Raphaël Glucksmann
55%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
53%

Dominique de Villepin
50%

François Hollande
45%

Fabien Roussel
49%

David Lisnard
44%

François Ruffin
40%

Gabriel Attal
40%

Sarah Knafo
35%

Marine Le Pen
29%

François Asselineau
28%

Delphine Batho
16%

Matthieu Pigasse
18%

Bernard Cazeneuve
27%

Gérald Darmanin
16%

Manuel Bompard
13%

Juan Branco
15%

Xavier Bertrand
15%

Carole Delga
14%

Jérôme Guedj
12%

Laurent Wauquiez
11%

Jean Castex
10%

Ségolène Royal
10%

Michel-Edouard Leclerc
9%

Sébastien Lecornu
9%

Philippe de Villiers
8%

Élisabeth Borne
7%

Manuel Valls
7%

Jean-Michel Fauvergue
7%

Olivier Faure
13%

Karim Bouamrane
6%

Bally Bagayoko
5%

Clémentine Autain
5%

Mathilde Panot
5%

Valérie Pécresse
4%

François Bayrou
4%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
4%

Teddy Riner
4%

Michel Barnier
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 24, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The upcoming July 7, 2026, Paris Court of Appeals ruling on Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and five-year public office ban remains the dominant factor shaping the field for the April 2027 French presidential election. An upheld decision would bar the National Rally leader and position her protégé Jordan Bardella as the party’s nominee, while a reversal could restore her eligibility. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of his fourth candidacy has clarified the radical left’s position, though moderate left parties are still organizing a unitary primary. On the center-right, Bruno Retailleau secured the Republicans nomination in April, while figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal continue positioning themselves as potential consolidators against the far-right front-runner. These eligibility and coalition developments will determine which candidates ultimately qualify for the ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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