Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a position held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC, Arab League, and UN channels. Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict prompted American strikes on the island and Greater Tunb in July 2026, targeting Revolutionary Guard facilities used for missile and naval operations, yet these actions have not altered on-ground control. A prior April 2026 ceasefire reduced major combat but left Iranian forces in place amid ongoing Strait security concerns. UAE statements continue to frame the islands as occupied territory and advocate negotiated or ICJ resolution, while Iranian policy treats them as integral territory with expanded infrastructure and military assets. Trader assessments of any near-term shift hinge on potential further military contingencies, diplomatic breakthroughs, or renewed hostilities before the market's resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'île d'Abou Moussa n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par... ?
L'île d'Abou Moussa n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par... ?
$88,312 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
<1%
$88,312 Vol.
31 août
$81,644 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a position held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC, Arab League, and UN channels. Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict prompted American strikes on the island and Greater Tunb in July 2026, targeting Revolutionary Guard facilities used for missile and naval operations, yet these actions have not altered on-ground control. A prior April 2026 ceasefire reduced major combat but left Iranian forces in place amid ongoing Strait security concerns. UAE statements continue to frame the islands as occupied territory and advocate negotiated or ICJ resolution, while Iranian policy treats them as integral territory with expanded infrastructure and military assets. Trader assessments of any near-term shift hinge on potential further military contingencies, diplomatic breakthroughs, or renewed hostilities before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$88,312Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a position held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC, Arab League, and UN channels. Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict prompted American strikes on the island and Greater Tunb in July 2026, targeting Revolutionary Guard facilities used for missile and naval operations, yet these actions have not altered on-ground control. A prior April 2026 ceasefire reduced major combat but left Iranian forces in place amid ongoing Strait security concerns. UAE statements continue to frame the islands as occupied territory and advocate negotiated or ICJ resolution, while Iranian policy treats them as integral territory with expanded infrastructure and military assets. Trader assessments of any near-term shift hinge on potential further military contingencies, diplomatic breakthroughs, or renewed hostilities before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,312Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a position held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC, Arab League, and UN channels. Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict prompted American strikes on the island and Greater Tunb in July 2026, targeting Revolutionary Guard facilities used for missile and naval operations, yet these actions have not altered on-ground control. A prior April 2026 ceasefire reduced major combat but left Iranian forces in place amid ongoing Strait security concerns. UAE statements continue to frame the islands as occupied territory and advocate negotiated or ICJ resolution, while Iranian policy treats them as integral territory with expanded infrastructure and military assets. Trader assessments of any near-term shift hinge on potential further military contingencies, diplomatic breakthroughs, or renewed hostilities before the market's resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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