Eduardo Braga (MDB) leads the Amazonas Senate race for first place in late September and early October 2026 polling, consistently registering 38–49% in first-choice scenarios and topping combined two-vote results across multiple institutes including Action, IPEN, Quaest, and DMP. This positioning stems from his incumbency advantage, broad name recognition, and stronger support in both Manaus and interior municipalities. Capitão Alberto Neto (PL) trails as the primary challenger at 18–22% in first preferences, with Wilson Lima (União Brasil) and Plínio Valério (PSDB) competing more closely for second place. The October 4 election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts, aligning trader pricing with these repeated survey trends and the structural edge for the sitting senator in a two-seat contest.