**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning his seat in early July amid a parliamentary inquiry into possible financial impropriety.** He secured roughly 63% of the vote against a field of fringe and novelty candidates, with major parties boycotting the contest. The investigation has since resumed, but Farage has returned to the Commons as the sitting Reform UK MP for the constituency. With the seat now filled following the recent by-election and no announced plans or procedural triggers for another vacancy, traders assign a 70.5% probability that no further by-election will be called before the end of 2026. UK parliamentary rules require a vacancy through resignation, death, or disqualification for a new contest to occur, and current circumstances provide no evident catalyst within the remaining months of the year. The market reflects this stability in the constituency’s representation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUne autre élection partielle de Clacton déclenchée en 2026 ?
Une autre élection partielle de Clacton déclenchée en 2026 ?
Oui
30% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
30% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning his seat in early July amid a parliamentary inquiry into possible financial impropriety.** He secured roughly 63% of the vote against a field of fringe and novelty candidates, with major parties boycotting the contest. The investigation has since resumed, but Farage has returned to the Commons as the sitting Reform UK MP for the constituency.
With the seat now filled following the recent by-election and no announced plans or procedural triggers for another vacancy, traders assign a 70.5% probability that no further by-election will be called before the end of 2026. UK parliamentary rules require a vacancy through resignation, death, or disqualification for a new contest to occur, and current circumstances provide no evident catalyst within the remaining months of the year. The market reflects this stability in the constituency’s representation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning his seat in early July amid a parliamentary inquiry into possible financial impropriety.** He secured roughly 63% of the vote against a field of fringe and novelty candidates, with major parties boycotting the contest. The investigation has since resumed, but Farage has returned to the Commons as the sitting Reform UK MP for the constituency.
With the seat now filled following the recent by-election and no announced plans or procedural triggers for another vacancy, traders assign a 70.5% probability that no further by-election will be called before the end of 2026. UK parliamentary rules require a vacancy through resignation, death, or disqualification for a new contest to occur, and current circumstances provide no evident catalyst within the remaining months of the year. The market reflects this stability in the constituency’s representation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning his seat in early July amid a parliamentary inquiry into possible financial impropriety.** He secured roughly 63% of the vote against a field of fringe and novelty candidates, with major parties boycotting the contest. The investigation has since resumed, but Farage has returned to the Commons as the sitting Reform UK MP for the constituency. With the seat now filled following the recent by-election and no announced plans or procedural triggers for another vacancy, traders assign a 70.5% probability that no further by-election will be called before the end of 2026. UK parliamentary rules require a vacancy through resignation, death, or disqualification for a new contest to occur, and current circumstances provide no evident catalyst within the remaining months of the year. The market reflects this stability in the constituency’s representation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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