Recent outages and degraded performance incidents have driven the 82.5% implied probability for another Codex outage before the end of 2026. OpenAI’s coding agent experienced a full 56-minute outage on September 25 affecting its web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, followed by elevated errors spanning Codex and related services on September 29. Additional degraded performance hit Codex and Work mode on October 7, with Dot thread failures and delayed responses lasting roughly two hours. These recurring issues, tied to internal problems and high load, have left traders viewing the service as prone to further disruptions despite current operational status. Upcoming model launches or usage spikes could serve as near-term catalysts.