Anthropic's advancing IPO timeline and aggressive $1.8–2 trillion valuation target, backed by rapid revenue acceleration to an $11.6 billion Q2 2026 run rate that recently surpassed OpenAI's, drive the 68.5% market-implied probability it will achieve the higher closing market cap. The company filed its prospectus in June and is positioned for marketing as early as mid-November 2026, with annualized revenue projections exceeding $100 billion by year-end amid strong enterprise adoption of its Claude models. In contrast, OpenAI has deferred its public debut to 2027 over AI safety priorities and is pursuing a $30 billion bridge round at roughly $1.4 trillion, following its March 2026 financing at $852 billion. Traders weigh Anthropic's momentum in private valuations and quarterly metrics against OpenAI's larger installed base, with upcoming catalysts including Anthropic's roadshow results and any final pre-IPO filings that could further clarify relative positioning.