**António Guterres is expected to complete his second term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on December 31, 2026.** The Security Council has conducted informal straw polls in July and August 2026 to identify his successor, with candidates such as Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan, and Rafael Grossi advancing in early rounds, but no mechanism or political pressure has emerged to shorten Guterres’s tenure. Guterres remains active in his official role, conducting diplomatic visits including to Syria, addressing the Security Council on food security and conflict, and giving interviews on UN reform and multipolar geopolitics as recently as late August 2026. The formal selection process, launched in late 2025 under General Assembly resolutions, focuses on a smooth transition starting in 2027 rather than any early departure. With no reported resignations, health issues, or member-state initiatives to remove him, trader consensus reflected in the 59.5% “No” price aligns with the standard two-term precedent and the absence of disruptive developments in the final months of his mandate.