The reopening of the Tompkins County investigation into the Cornell 7 has fueled trader skepticism about felony charges despite the September 2026 civil lawsuit and public outcry. District Attorney Matthew Van Houten initially declined prosecution in 2024 after reviewing Jane Doe’s statement to campus police, which he described as lacking evidence of non-consent or drugging; he has since flagged significant differences from the new allegations and is only now presenting the matter to a grand jury with the victim’s cooperation. New York’s attorney general has taken over as special prosecutor following Governor Hochul’s directive, but the process remains early, the accused have denied wrongdoing with some citing consensual encounters, and historical patterns show high bars for indictments in similar campus cases. These factors underpin the market’s 70.5% implied probability on “No.”