Apple’s deprioritization of a true Vision Pro successor explains the market’s 96.9% “No” odds. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in September 2026 that the N224 project remains in early concept stages with four design directions under review, but internal resources have shifted to lighter smart glasses targeted for late 2027, leaving any full redesign unlikely before late 2028 or 2029. The October 2025 M5 refresh was a minor processor update on the existing M2-era hardware rather than a generational leap, and earlier plans for a cheaper Vision Air variant were canceled. With no confirmed announcement or supply-chain signals pointing to a 2026 launch, traders see limited catalysts capable of reversing the timeline absent a sudden executive reversal.