Yemeni government forces announced their withdrawal on November 15 from positions near Dhubab and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to prioritize defense of Aden, allowing Houthi fighters to reoccupy key overlooks including areas around Perim Island and the Ras Menhali peninsula. This reverses a brief October government counteroffensive and gives the Houthis improved ability to monitor or interdict traffic through the narrow chokepoint linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Container ship transits through the strait rose notably in October as some carriers resumed routes despite ongoing risks, though overall volumes remain well below pre-2023 levels with many operators still routing via the Cape of Good Hope. Houthi statements continue to distinguish between targeted and general shipping, but the strengthened coastal positions raise the practical feasibility of broader disruption through speedboats or missiles. Further Houthi pressure toward Aden or renewed strikes on Saudi targets could influence shipping decisions and any international naval responses in the coming weeks.
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