Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads the Baja California governor market at 76.6% implied probability after Morena and the PVEM selected her in mid-September 2026 as coordinator of the Defense of the Transformation and National Sovereignty, positioning her as the coalition’s presumptive nominee for the June 6, 2027, election. Internal party surveys showed her topping other aspirants by wide margins on attributes including name recognition, voter preference, and perceived honesty. Ismael Burgueño Ruiz, previously viewed as the frontrunner due to ties with the current governor, placed a distant second and now trades at 6%. Remaining listed candidates, mostly opposition figures or independents, carry minimal shares consistent with limited polling visibility and the ruling coalition’s recent dominance in state contests. A pending electoral tribunal challenge from one internal rival has not altered the nomination outcome.