Recent explosion of a New Glenn vehicle during a May 28 static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the booster and inflicted major pad damage, grounding the program just weeks after the April 19 NG-3 flight. Blue Origin’s CEO has publicly committed to returning to flight before year-end, yet independent assessments project 12–18 months for infrastructure repairs, FAA re-certification, and engine re-qualification. With only six months remaining in 2026 and no alternate pads available, traders assign an 86.5 % probability that no New Glenn launch will occur this calendar year, reflecting both the physical constraints of pad reconstruction and the vehicle’s prior history of schedule slips.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent explosion of a New Glenn vehicle during a May 28 static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the booster and inflicted major pad damage, grounding the program just weeks after the April 19 NG-3 flight. Blue Origin’s CEO has publicly committed to returning to flight before year-end, yet independent assessments project 12–18 months for infrastructure repairs, FAA re-certification, and engine re-qualification. With only six months remaining in 2026 and no alternate pads available, traders assign an 86.5 % probability that no New Glenn launch will occur this calendar year, reflecting both the physical constraints of pad reconstruction and the vehicle’s prior history of schedule slips.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$210Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent explosion of a New Glenn vehicle during a May 28 static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the booster and inflicted major pad damage, grounding the program just weeks after the April 19 NG-3 flight. Blue Origin’s CEO has publicly committed to returning to flight before year-end, yet independent assessments project 12–18 months for infrastructure repairs, FAA re-certification, and engine re-qualification. With only six months remaining in 2026 and no alternate pads available, traders assign an 86.5 % probability that no New Glenn launch will occur this calendar year, reflecting both the physical constraints of pad reconstruction and the vehicle’s prior history of schedule slips.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$210Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent explosion of a New Glenn vehicle during a May 28 static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the booster and inflicted major pad damage, grounding the program just weeks after the April 19 NG-3 flight. Blue Origin’s CEO has publicly committed to returning to flight before year-end, yet independent assessments project 12–18 months for infrastructure repairs, FAA re-certification, and engine re-qualification. With only six months remaining in 2026 and no alternate pads available, traders assign an 86.5 % probability that no New Glenn launch will occur this calendar year, reflecting both the physical constraints of pad reconstruction and the vehicle’s prior history of schedule slips.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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