Blue Origin’s New Glenn heavy-lift rocket faces an aggressive year-end 2026 return-to-flight target after a May 28 static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed the stacked vehicle and heavily damaged the sole active pad. Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 83.5% reflects the scale of reconstruction—shifting to a new horizontal-vertical hybrid configuration—plus ongoing BE-4 engine valve fixes, vehicle and payload integration, and regulatory steps required before any authorized launch. Recent statements from Jeff Bezos and CEO Dave Limp narrowed the goal to December, yet analysts highlight that pad requalification, engine requalification, and first-attempt success on every milestone remain high-risk in the remaining weeks, consistent with typical delays for new orbital-class vehicles.