Xavier Becerra holds a commanding position in the 2026 California gubernatorial race due to the state’s strong Democratic registration edge, his first-place finish in the June top-two primary, and consistent polling leads of 20 points or more over Republican Steve Hilton. Becerra advanced past other Democratic contenders including Tom Steyer and Katie Porter, while Hilton consolidated Republican support. Recent surveys show Becerra at roughly 58-60% among likely voters, reflecting voter priorities around affordability alongside resistance to national Republican policies. His cautious, low-profile campaign has avoided major risks, though some polls note lukewarm personal favorability. Hilton has pressed issues like taxes and energy costs in the September debate and media appearances, yet faces structural barriers in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2006. Late developments such as a significant scandal or turnout surprise could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.