José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president seeking a second term in Cape Verde’s November 15, 2026 election, holds a commanding 70.5% implied probability in trader consensus due to his established record and the PAICV’s recent parliamentary majority win in May 2026. This legislative outcome strengthened the party’s organizational position ahead of the presidential vote in the semi-presidential system. Declared opposition challengers from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with lower-probability names such as Casimiro de Pina and others, trail significantly as the race remains early with limited formal nominations and no major polling shifts reported in the past month. The presidential decree fixing the election date has provided clarity on the timeline without altering frontrunner dynamics.