Ongoing legal hurdles from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has excluded Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges from the 2024 amnesty law, anchor trader consensus around a 74.5% “No” probability for any sustained return in 2026. The July 2026 EU Court of Justice ruling upheld the amnesty framework yet left his arrest warrant intact, deferring final resolution to an October Constitutional Court decision. His dramatic but fleeting August 2024 Barcelona appearance, which triggered a police manhunt without clearing charges, reinforced perceptions of high risk and limited momentum. With the calendar year advancing and Madrid’s political stance unchanged, traders see judicial friction and procedural delays as the decisive catalysts keeping the market tilted against a timely homecoming.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour26% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
26% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Ongoing legal hurdles from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has excluded Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges from the 2024 amnesty law, anchor trader consensus around a 74.5% “No” probability for any sustained return in 2026. The July 2026 EU Court of Justice ruling upheld the amnesty framework yet left his arrest warrant intact, deferring final resolution to an October Constitutional Court decision. His dramatic but fleeting August 2024 Barcelona appearance, which triggered a police manhunt without clearing charges, reinforced perceptions of high risk and limited momentum. With the calendar year advancing and Madrid’s political stance unchanged, traders see judicial friction and procedural delays as the decisive catalysts keeping the market tilted against a timely homecoming.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,830Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Ongoing legal hurdles from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has excluded Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges from the 2024 amnesty law, anchor trader consensus around a 74.5% “No” probability for any sustained return in 2026. The July 2026 EU Court of Justice ruling upheld the amnesty framework yet left his arrest warrant intact, deferring final resolution to an October Constitutional Court decision. His dramatic but fleeting August 2024 Barcelona appearance, which triggered a police manhunt without clearing charges, reinforced perceptions of high risk and limited momentum. With the calendar year advancing and Madrid’s political stance unchanged, traders see judicial friction and procedural delays as the decisive catalysts keeping the market tilted against a timely homecoming.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Volume
$1,830Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing legal hurdles from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has excluded Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges from the 2024 amnesty law, anchor trader consensus around a 74.5% “No” probability for any sustained return in 2026. The July 2026 EU Court of Justice ruling upheld the amnesty framework yet left his arrest warrant intact, deferring final resolution to an October Constitutional Court decision. His dramatic but fleeting August 2024 Barcelona appearance, which triggered a police manhunt without clearing charges, reinforced perceptions of high risk and limited momentum. With the calendar year advancing and Madrid’s political stance unchanged, traders see judicial friction and procedural delays as the decisive catalysts keeping the market tilted against a timely homecoming.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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