DPP Legislator Chen Su-yueh holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Changhua County Magistrate race due to her party’s formal nomination and established local support base in a jurisdiction the DPP has targeted for gains. KMT deliberations over nominees, including consideration of Wei Ping-cheng, have remained deadlocked without producing a consensus challenger, limiting opposition cohesion. Former DPP Changhua mayor Chiu Chien-fu’s June resignation to run independently adds a potential vote-split factor, though his odds sit at 5.5%. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates reflect limited polling visibility and structural barriers ahead of the late-November vote. Trader pricing aligns with the DPP’s organizational edge and the absence of major recent shifts in candidate positioning or endorsements.