China's economy expanded 4.7% in the first half of 2026 before slowing to 4.3% year-over-year in Q2, missing expectations amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and continued property sector adjustment. Strong high-tech manufacturing and export resilience, particularly in AI-related sectors, have provided a partial offset. Major institutions including the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and Reuters surveys project full-year 2026 growth in the 4.4–4.7% range, aligning with Beijing's 4.5–5% target band. Traders have priced the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 88.5% on this combination of confirmed quarterly data, steady policy support expectations, and limited evidence of near-term acceleration or sharp downturn.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,0–5,0 % 89%
5,0–6,0 % 10.7%
8,0–9,0 % 1.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
$875,308 Vol.
$875,308 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
89%
5,0–6,0 %
11%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 89%
5,0–6,0 % 10.7%
8,0–9,0 % 1.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
$875,308 Vol.
$875,308 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
<1,0 %
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$80,148 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$219,722 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0 %
$78,494 Vol.
11%
6,0-7,0 %
$82,124 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$115,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's economy expanded 4.7% in the first half of 2026 before slowing to 4.3% year-over-year in Q2, missing expectations amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and continued property sector adjustment. Strong high-tech manufacturing and export resilience, particularly in AI-related sectors, have provided a partial offset. Major institutions including the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and Reuters surveys project full-year 2026 growth in the 4.4–4.7% range, aligning with Beijing's 4.5–5% target band. Traders have priced the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 88.5% on this combination of confirmed quarterly data, steady policy support expectations, and limited evidence of near-term acceleration or sharp downturn.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$875,308Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's economy expanded 4.7% in the first half of 2026 before slowing to 4.3% year-over-year in Q2, missing expectations amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and continued property sector adjustment. Strong high-tech manufacturing and export resilience, particularly in AI-related sectors, have provided a partial offset. Major institutions including the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and Reuters surveys project full-year 2026 growth in the 4.4–4.7% range, aligning with Beijing's 4.5–5% target band. Traders have priced the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 88.5% on this combination of confirmed quarterly data, steady policy support expectations, and limited evidence of near-term acceleration or sharp downturn.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$875,308Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's economy expanded 4.7% in the first half of 2026 before slowing to 4.3% year-over-year in Q2, missing expectations amid weak domestic demand, subdued consumption, and continued property sector adjustment. Strong high-tech manufacturing and export resilience, particularly in AI-related sectors, have provided a partial offset. Major institutions including the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and Reuters surveys project full-year 2026 growth in the 4.4–4.7% range, aligning with Beijing's 4.5–5% target band. Traders have priced the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 88.5% on this combination of confirmed quarterly data, steady policy support expectations, and limited evidence of near-term acceleration or sharp downturn.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes