Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fresh hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz involving U.S.-Iran relations, have emerged as the dominant driver lifting WTI crude prices above $101 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. Supply disruption fears through this critical chokepoint have added a significant risk premium, pushing benchmarks higher amid stalled negotiations and recent tanker seizures. Traders are closely watching for any breakthrough in talks or further escalations, which could swiftly alter the near-term trajectory ahead of the June deadline. Broader factors include OPEC+ output discipline and global demand signals, though current momentum centers on these acute geopolitical risks that continue to influence market-implied odds for hitting key price thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe pétrole brut (CL) atteindra-t-il__ d'ici la fin du mois de juin ?
$17,117,510 Vol.
↑ 200 $
2%
↑ 175 $
5%
↑ 150 $
12%
↑ 140 $
19%
↑ 130 $
30%
↑ 120 $
47%
↑ 115 $
58%
↑ $110
66%
↑ $105
88%
↓ $90
62%
↓ $85
39%
↓ 80 $
36%
↓ 70 $
10%
↓ 60 $
5%
↓ 55 $
3%
↓ 52 $
2%
↓ 50 $
2%
↓ 47 $
1%
↓ 45 $
2%
↓ 40 $
1%
↓ 35 $
1%
$17,117,510 Vol.
↑ 200 $
2%
↑ 175 $
5%
↑ 150 $
12%
↑ 140 $
19%
↑ 130 $
30%
↑ 120 $
47%
↑ 115 $
58%
↑ $110
66%
↑ $105
88%
↓ $90
62%
↓ $85
39%
↓ 80 $
36%
↓ 70 $
10%
↓ 60 $
5%
↓ 55 $
3%
↓ 52 $
2%
↓ 50 $
2%
↓ 47 $
1%
↓ 45 $
2%
↓ 40 $
1%
↓ 35 $
1%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 1:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fresh hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz involving U.S.-Iran relations, have emerged as the dominant driver lifting WTI crude prices above $101 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. Supply disruption fears through this critical chokepoint have added a significant risk premium, pushing benchmarks higher amid stalled negotiations and recent tanker seizures. Traders are closely watching for any breakthrough in talks or further escalations, which could swiftly alter the near-term trajectory ahead of the June deadline. Broader factors include OPEC+ output discipline and global demand signals, though current momentum centers on these acute geopolitical risks that continue to influence market-implied odds for hitting key price thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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