Michigan stands as the leading outcome in trader assessments of Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate contest due to its open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement, the state’s even partisan lean, and recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in multiple surveys after the August primary. Maine and Alaska rank next as competitive pickup opportunities, with Susan Collins facing a tightened race against Troy Jackson and Mary Peltola advancing strongly from Alaska’s top-four primary against Dan Sullivan. Iowa, Ohio, and Texas remain in the mix after Cook Political Report shifts to tossup status, reflecting Democratic recruitment gains and a softer national environment, though Republican incumbency or structural advantages keep those probabilities lower. Trader consensus aligns with these states’ relative positioning on the 2026 map.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa meilleure course au Sénat de Dems ?
La meilleure course au Sénat de Dems ?
Michigan 51%
Alaska 25%
Maine 18%
Ohio 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Michigan
51%
Alaska
25%
Maine
18%
Ohio
15%
Iowa
13%
Texas
12%
Michigan 51%
Alaska 25%
Maine 18%
Ohio 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Michigan
$56 Vol.
51%
Alaska
$119 Vol.
25%
Maine
$39 Vol.
18%
Ohio
$38 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$39 Vol.
13%
Texas
$39 Vol.
12%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands as the leading outcome in trader assessments of Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate contest due to its open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement, the state’s even partisan lean, and recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in multiple surveys after the August primary. Maine and Alaska rank next as competitive pickup opportunities, with Susan Collins facing a tightened race against Troy Jackson and Mary Peltola advancing strongly from Alaska’s top-four primary against Dan Sullivan. Iowa, Ohio, and Texas remain in the mix after Cook Political Report shifts to tossup status, reflecting Democratic recruitment gains and a softer national environment, though Republican incumbency or structural advantages keep those probabilities lower. Trader consensus aligns with these states’ relative positioning on the 2026 map.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$330Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands as the leading outcome in trader assessments of Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate contest due to its open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement, the state’s even partisan lean, and recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in multiple surveys after the August primary. Maine and Alaska rank next as competitive pickup opportunities, with Susan Collins facing a tightened race against Troy Jackson and Mary Peltola advancing strongly from Alaska’s top-four primary against Dan Sullivan. Iowa, Ohio, and Texas remain in the mix after Cook Political Report shifts to tossup status, reflecting Democratic recruitment gains and a softer national environment, though Republican incumbency or structural advantages keep those probabilities lower. Trader consensus aligns with these states’ relative positioning on the 2026 map.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$330Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands as the leading outcome in trader assessments of Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate contest due to its open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement, the state’s even partisan lean, and recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in multiple surveys after the August primary. Maine and Alaska rank next as competitive pickup opportunities, with Susan Collins facing a tightened race against Troy Jackson and Mary Peltola advancing strongly from Alaska’s top-four primary against Dan Sullivan. Iowa, Ohio, and Texas remain in the mix after Cook Political Report shifts to tossup status, reflecting Democratic recruitment gains and a softer national environment, though Republican incumbency or structural advantages keep those probabilities lower. Trader consensus aligns with these states’ relative positioning on the 2026 map.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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