The market-implied odds for no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflect the ongoing but regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where confirmed cases exceed 5,700 and deaths approach 2,800 as of late August, concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces. Official data from the WHO and CDC show transmission driven by community spread and contact tracing gaps amid conflict zones, yet with minimal sustained exports—Uganda has ended its linked cluster, isolated cases reached France and Germany via medical evacuation, and no U.S. cases have occurred. Historical Ebola patterns and low global importation risk support trader consensus, though realistic shifts could arise from further cross-border seeding, surveillance shortfalls, or failure to scale isolation and emerging vaccine efforts before year-end monitoring updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$717,991 Vol.
$717,991 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4% chance
$717,991 Vol.
$717,991 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market-implied odds for no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflect the ongoing but regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where confirmed cases exceed 5,700 and deaths approach 2,800 as of late August, concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces. Official data from the WHO and CDC show transmission driven by community spread and contact tracing gaps amid conflict zones, yet with minimal sustained exports—Uganda has ended its linked cluster, isolated cases reached France and Germany via medical evacuation, and no U.S. cases have occurred. Historical Ebola patterns and low global importation risk support trader consensus, though realistic shifts could arise from further cross-border seeding, surveillance shortfalls, or failure to scale isolation and emerging vaccine efforts before year-end monitoring updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$717,991Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market-implied odds for no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflect the ongoing but regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where confirmed cases exceed 5,700 and deaths approach 2,800 as of late August, concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces. Official data from the WHO and CDC show transmission driven by community spread and contact tracing gaps amid conflict zones, yet with minimal sustained exports—Uganda has ended its linked cluster, isolated cases reached France and Germany via medical evacuation, and no U.S. cases have occurred. Historical Ebola patterns and low global importation risk support trader consensus, though realistic shifts could arise from further cross-border seeding, surveillance shortfalls, or failure to scale isolation and emerging vaccine efforts before year-end monitoring updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$717,991Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The market-implied odds for no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflect the ongoing but regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where confirmed cases exceed 5,700 and deaths approach 2,800 as of late August, concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces. Official data from the WHO and CDC show transmission driven by community spread and contact tracing gaps amid conflict zones, yet with minimal sustained exports—Uganda has ended its linked cluster, isolated cases reached France and Germany via medical evacuation, and no U.S. cases have occurred. Historical Ebola patterns and low global importation risk support trader consensus, though realistic shifts could arise from further cross-border seeding, surveillance shortfalls, or failure to scale isolation and emerging vaccine efforts before year-end monitoring updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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