Recent confirmed case counts exceeding 5,300 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by Bundibugyo virus transmission through close contact, have prompted a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration, yet sustained international chains remain absent. Robust surveillance, contact tracing, isolation protocols reaching over 800 patients, and limited exportations—with only isolated imported cases like one in France—support the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Historical patterns of Ebola outbreaks show containment within regions when response capacity scales quickly, consistent with current CDC and WHO assessments of very low global spread risk. Realistic shifts could occur if isolation rates drop sharply or undetected community transmission expands across borders before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$699,662 Vol.
$699,662 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
4% chance
$699,662 Vol.
$699,662 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confirmed case counts exceeding 5,300 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by Bundibugyo virus transmission through close contact, have prompted a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration, yet sustained international chains remain absent. Robust surveillance, contact tracing, isolation protocols reaching over 800 patients, and limited exportations—with only isolated imported cases like one in France—support the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Historical patterns of Ebola outbreaks show containment within regions when response capacity scales quickly, consistent with current CDC and WHO assessments of very low global spread risk. Realistic shifts could occur if isolation rates drop sharply or undetected community transmission expands across borders before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$699,662Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confirmed case counts exceeding 5,300 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by Bundibugyo virus transmission through close contact, have prompted a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration, yet sustained international chains remain absent. Robust surveillance, contact tracing, isolation protocols reaching over 800 patients, and limited exportations—with only isolated imported cases like one in France—support the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Historical patterns of Ebola outbreaks show containment within regions when response capacity scales quickly, consistent with current CDC and WHO assessments of very low global spread risk. Realistic shifts could occur if isolation rates drop sharply or undetected community transmission expands across borders before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$699,662Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent confirmed case counts exceeding 5,300 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by Bundibugyo virus transmission through close contact, have prompted a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration, yet sustained international chains remain absent. Robust surveillance, contact tracing, isolation protocols reaching over 800 patients, and limited exportations—with only isolated imported cases like one in France—support the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Historical patterns of Ebola outbreaks show containment within regions when response capacity scales quickly, consistent with current CDC and WHO assessments of very low global spread risk. Realistic shifts could occur if isolation rates drop sharply or undetected community transmission expands across borders before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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