Roblox's public market capitalization near $27 billion as of mid-August 2026 underpins the 90% market-implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Epic Games on December 31, reflecting its larger revenue base, daily active users exceeding 150 million in prior periods, and transparent equity pricing versus Epic's private status. Recent Q2 results showed 36% revenue growth to $1.5 billion alongside persistent net losses, yet weak monetization, player declines, and Q3 bookings guidance of a 14-18% year-over-year drop have pressured shares and erased tens of billions in market value from prior peaks. Epic trades on secondary markets around a $14 billion capitalization—well below its $22.5 billion 2024 primary round—with estimated 2024 revenue near $5.7 billion amid platform challenges and flat headline valuations. Traders price in Roblox's scale and liquidity edge persisting through year-end despite execution risks in both companies' competitive positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEpic Games
10% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
Epic Games
10% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Stripe's valuation is equal to Roblox's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Roblox's public market capitalization near $27 billion as of mid-August 2026 underpins the 90% market-implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Epic Games on December 31, reflecting its larger revenue base, daily active users exceeding 150 million in prior periods, and transparent equity pricing versus Epic's private status. Recent Q2 results showed 36% revenue growth to $1.5 billion alongside persistent net losses, yet weak monetization, player declines, and Q3 bookings guidance of a 14-18% year-over-year drop have pressured shares and erased tens of billions in market value from prior peaks. Epic trades on secondary markets around a $14 billion capitalization—well below its $22.5 billion 2024 primary round—with estimated 2024 revenue near $5.7 billion amid platform challenges and flat headline valuations. Traders price in Roblox's scale and liquidity edge persisting through year-end despite execution risks in both companies' competitive positioning.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Stripe's valuation is equal to Roblox's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Stripe's valuation is equal to Roblox's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Marché ouvert : May 19, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,259Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Stripe's valuation is equal to Roblox's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Roblox's public market capitalization near $27 billion as of mid-August 2026 underpins the 90% market-implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Epic Games on December 31, reflecting its larger revenue base, daily active users exceeding 150 million in prior periods, and transparent equity pricing versus Epic's private status. Recent Q2 results showed 36% revenue growth to $1.5 billion alongside persistent net losses, yet weak monetization, player declines, and Q3 bookings guidance of a 14-18% year-over-year drop have pressured shares and erased tens of billions in market value from prior peaks. Epic trades on secondary markets around a $14 billion capitalization—well below its $22.5 billion 2024 primary round—with estimated 2024 revenue near $5.7 billion amid platform challenges and flat headline valuations. Traders price in Roblox's scale and liquidity edge persisting through year-end despite execution risks in both companies' competitive positioning.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Stripe's valuation is equal to Roblox's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Stripe's valuation is equal to Roblox's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$1,259Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Roblox's public market capitalization near $27 billion as of mid-August 2026 underpins the 90% market-implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Epic Games on December 31, reflecting its larger revenue base, daily active users exceeding 150 million in prior periods, and transparent equity pricing versus Epic's private status. Recent Q2 results showed 36% revenue growth to $1.5 billion alongside persistent net losses, yet weak monetization, player declines, and Q3 bookings guidance of a 14-18% year-over-year drop have pressured shares and erased tens of billions in market value from prior peaks. Epic trades on secondary markets around a $14 billion capitalization—well below its $22.5 billion 2024 primary round—with estimated 2024 revenue near $5.7 billion amid platform challenges and flat headline valuations. Traders price in Roblox's scale and liquidity edge persisting through year-end despite execution risks in both companies' competitive positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes