Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
16% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,244Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,244Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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