Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the structural barriers to breakup, including unanimous treaty amendments and the two-year exit timeline that leaves scant room before December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce stability: the EU advanced its 20th sanctions package against Russia in April 2026, progressed regulatory reforms like the Industrial Accelerator Act, and issued positive macroeconomic outlooks amid geopolitical pressures, with no credible reports of exit movements or coalition fractures. While deep single market and eurozone integration underpins confidence, low-probability scenarios like a severe economic collapse, escalating NATO tensions, or simultaneous populist revolts in key states such as France or Germany could theoretically shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
$166,391 Vol.
$166,391 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$166,391 Vol.
$166,391 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the structural barriers to breakup, including unanimous treaty amendments and the two-year exit timeline that leaves scant room before December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce stability: the EU advanced its 20th sanctions package against Russia in April 2026, progressed regulatory reforms like the Industrial Accelerator Act, and issued positive macroeconomic outlooks amid geopolitical pressures, with no credible reports of exit movements or coalition fractures. While deep single market and eurozone integration underpins confidence, low-probability scenarios like a severe economic collapse, escalating NATO tensions, or simultaneous populist revolts in key states such as France or Germany could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$166,391Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the structural barriers to breakup, including unanimous treaty amendments and the two-year exit timeline that leaves scant room before December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce stability: the EU advanced its 20th sanctions package against Russia in April 2026, progressed regulatory reforms like the Industrial Accelerator Act, and issued positive macroeconomic outlooks amid geopolitical pressures, with no credible reports of exit movements or coalition fractures. While deep single market and eurozone integration underpins confidence, low-probability scenarios like a severe economic collapse, escalating NATO tensions, or simultaneous populist revolts in key states such as France or Germany could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$166,391Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the structural barriers to breakup, including unanimous treaty amendments and the two-year exit timeline that leaves scant room before December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce stability: the EU advanced its 20th sanctions package against Russia in April 2026, progressed regulatory reforms like the Industrial Accelerator Act, and issued positive macroeconomic outlooks amid geopolitical pressures, with no credible reports of exit movements or coalition fractures. While deep single market and eurozone integration underpins confidence, low-probability scenarios like a severe economic collapse, escalating NATO tensions, or simultaneous populist revolts in key states such as France or Germany could theoretically shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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