Deep economic integration, shared institutions, and legal frameworks requiring broad consensus among member states underpin trader consensus that the European Union will not formally dissolve before 2027. Recent developments, including coordinated defense initiatives, continued support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of policies like the AI Act, reflect ongoing cooperation despite external pressures from global trade tensions and internal political shifts in countries such as France and Germany. Nationalist parties have gained ground, yet no coordinated exits or structural crises have emerged to threaten the bloc's core treaties. The 97.8% implied probability for "No" captures this stability, consistent with historical patterns of incremental adaptation rather than collapse. Even so, synchronized leadership changes in multiple large economies or an acute fiscal or security crisis could introduce limited volatility within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
2% chance
$178,916 Vol.
$178,916 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$178,916 Vol.
$178,916 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Deep economic integration, shared institutions, and legal frameworks requiring broad consensus among member states underpin trader consensus that the European Union will not formally dissolve before 2027. Recent developments, including coordinated defense initiatives, continued support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of policies like the AI Act, reflect ongoing cooperation despite external pressures from global trade tensions and internal political shifts in countries such as France and Germany. Nationalist parties have gained ground, yet no coordinated exits or structural crises have emerged to threaten the bloc's core treaties. The 97.8% implied probability for "No" captures this stability, consistent with historical patterns of incremental adaptation rather than collapse. Even so, synchronized leadership changes in multiple large economies or an acute fiscal or security crisis could introduce limited volatility within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$178,916Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Deep economic integration, shared institutions, and legal frameworks requiring broad consensus among member states underpin trader consensus that the European Union will not formally dissolve before 2027. Recent developments, including coordinated defense initiatives, continued support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of policies like the AI Act, reflect ongoing cooperation despite external pressures from global trade tensions and internal political shifts in countries such as France and Germany. Nationalist parties have gained ground, yet no coordinated exits or structural crises have emerged to threaten the bloc's core treaties. The 97.8% implied probability for "No" captures this stability, consistent with historical patterns of incremental adaptation rather than collapse. Even so, synchronized leadership changes in multiple large economies or an acute fiscal or security crisis could introduce limited volatility within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$178,916Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Deep economic integration, shared institutions, and legal frameworks requiring broad consensus among member states underpin trader consensus that the European Union will not formally dissolve before 2027. Recent developments, including coordinated defense initiatives, continued support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of policies like the AI Act, reflect ongoing cooperation despite external pressures from global trade tensions and internal political shifts in countries such as France and Germany. Nationalist parties have gained ground, yet no coordinated exits or structural crises have emerged to threaten the bloc's core treaties. The 97.8% implied probability for "No" captures this stability, consistent with historical patterns of incremental adaptation rather than collapse. Even so, synchronized leadership changes in multiple large economies or an acute fiscal or security crisis could introduce limited volatility within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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