Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges in September 2026 have centered on strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island—the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports—without establishing foreign governmental or military control over the island or its neighbors. These actions, alongside missile responses and shipping adjustments through the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel amid tanker disruptions and supply concerns, while leaving oil infrastructure intact. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds near 2% for any loss of Iranian control by September 30, aligns with the absence of occupation forces or regime change and the focus on targeted strikes rather than territorial seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and potential further strikes that could influence energy flows without shifting island sovereignty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$156,548 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
September 30
1%
$156,548 Vol.
September 30
$103,771 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges in September 2026 have centered on strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island—the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports—without establishing foreign governmental or military control over the island or its neighbors. These actions, alongside missile responses and shipping adjustments through the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel amid tanker disruptions and supply concerns, while leaving oil infrastructure intact. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds near 2% for any loss of Iranian control by September 30, aligns with the absence of occupation forces or regime change and the focus on targeted strikes rather than territorial seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and potential further strikes that could influence energy flows without shifting island sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$156,548Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges in September 2026 have centered on strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island—the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports—without establishing foreign governmental or military control over the island or its neighbors. These actions, alongside missile responses and shipping adjustments through the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel amid tanker disruptions and supply concerns, while leaving oil infrastructure intact. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds near 2% for any loss of Iranian control by September 30, aligns with the absence of occupation forces or regime change and the focus on targeted strikes rather than territorial seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and potential further strikes that could influence energy flows without shifting island sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156,548Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges in September 2026 have centered on strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island—the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports—without establishing foreign governmental or military control over the island or its neighbors. These actions, alongside missile responses and shipping adjustments through the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel amid tanker disruptions and supply concerns, while leaving oil infrastructure intact. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds near 2% for any loss of Iranian control by September 30, aligns with the absence of occupation forces or regime change and the focus on targeted strikes rather than territorial seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and potential further strikes that could influence energy flows without shifting island sovereignty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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