Republican control of Congress and the White House has produced multiple proposals to lower or index federal capital gains rates, including legislation from Sen. Ted Cruz and executive-action ideas floated in 2025–2026. However, none have advanced to enactment. The 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) extended and modified many 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions on ordinary income rates, the SALT deduction, and other items, yet left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure with only inflation-adjusted brackets for 2026. Ongoing debates over inflation indexing and targeted home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee or face legal hurdles, leaving no confirmed legislative or regulatory change that would reduce the rates before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that the rates will stay unchanged through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
17% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
17% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of Congress and the White House has produced multiple proposals to lower or index federal capital gains rates, including legislation from Sen. Ted Cruz and executive-action ideas floated in 2025–2026. However, none have advanced to enactment. The 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) extended and modified many 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions on ordinary income rates, the SALT deduction, and other items, yet left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure with only inflation-adjusted brackets for 2026. Ongoing debates over inflation indexing and targeted home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee or face legal hurdles, leaving no confirmed legislative or regulatory change that would reduce the rates before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that the rates will stay unchanged through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$95Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of Congress and the White House has produced multiple proposals to lower or index federal capital gains rates, including legislation from Sen. Ted Cruz and executive-action ideas floated in 2025–2026. However, none have advanced to enactment. The 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) extended and modified many 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions on ordinary income rates, the SALT deduction, and other items, yet left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure with only inflation-adjusted brackets for 2026. Ongoing debates over inflation indexing and targeted home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee or face legal hurdles, leaving no confirmed legislative or regulatory change that would reduce the rates before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that the rates will stay unchanged through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$95Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of Congress and the White House has produced multiple proposals to lower or index federal capital gains rates, including legislation from Sen. Ted Cruz and executive-action ideas floated in 2025–2026. However, none have advanced to enactment. The 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) extended and modified many 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions on ordinary income rates, the SALT deduction, and other items, yet left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure with only inflation-adjusted brackets for 2026. Ongoing debates over inflation indexing and targeted home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee or face legal hurdles, leaving no confirmed legislative or regulatory change that would reduce the rates before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that the rates will stay unchanged through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes