Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 12th Congressional District, driven by long-serving incumbent Gus Bilirakis's strong track record—including a 71% general election win in 2024 and 84% primary margin—paired with superior fundraising exceeding $1 million raised through late March. The district's Cook PVI of R+17 and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning, despite mid-decade redistricting that reduced its baseline from R+34 to R+12 and yielded a narrow Trump +6 in 2020 presidential results. Recent developments include Democratic veteran physician Darren McAuley's May 8 switch to challenge Bilirakis after the map changes, bolstering the Democratic field alongside primary contenders Kimberly Overman and Christopher Irizarry, though their fundraising lags far behind; no polls have emerged yet ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur du FL-12 House Election
Vainqueur du FL-12 House Election
$23,784 Vol.
$23,784 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
82%
Parti démocrate
18%
$23,784 Vol.
$23,784 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$8,835 Vol.
82%
Parti démocrate
$14,949 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 12th Congressional District, driven by long-serving incumbent Gus Bilirakis's strong track record—including a 71% general election win in 2024 and 84% primary margin—paired with superior fundraising exceeding $1 million raised through late March. The district's Cook PVI of R+17 and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning, despite mid-decade redistricting that reduced its baseline from R+34 to R+12 and yielded a narrow Trump +6 in 2020 presidential results. Recent developments include Democratic veteran physician Darren McAuley's May 8 switch to challenge Bilirakis after the map changes, bolstering the Democratic field alongside primary contenders Kimberly Overman and Christopher Irizarry, though their fundraising lags far behind; no polls have emerged yet ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$23,784Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 12th Congressional District, driven by long-serving incumbent Gus Bilirakis's strong track record—including a 71% general election win in 2024 and 84% primary margin—paired with superior fundraising exceeding $1 million raised through late March. The district's Cook PVI of R+17 and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning, despite mid-decade redistricting that reduced its baseline from R+34 to R+12 and yielded a narrow Trump +6 in 2020 presidential results. Recent developments include Democratic veteran physician Darren McAuley's May 8 switch to challenge Bilirakis after the map changes, bolstering the Democratic field alongside primary contenders Kimberly Overman and Christopher Irizarry, though their fundraising lags far behind; no polls have emerged yet ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,784Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 12th Congressional District, driven by long-serving incumbent Gus Bilirakis's strong track record—including a 71% general election win in 2024 and 84% primary margin—paired with superior fundraising exceeding $1 million raised through late March. The district's Cook PVI of R+17 and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning, despite mid-decade redistricting that reduced its baseline from R+34 to R+12 and yielded a narrow Trump +6 in 2020 presidential results. Recent developments include Democratic veteran physician Darren McAuley's May 8 switch to challenge Bilirakis after the map changes, bolstering the Democratic field alongside primary contenders Kimberly Overman and Christopher Irizarry, though their fundraising lags far behind; no polls have emerged yet ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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