Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida’s 28th Congressional District as the Republican incumbent facing Democrat Phil Ehr in a November 3, 2026 rematch. The district’s partisan lean of roughly R+10, combined with Giménez’s 64.6% victory in 2024 and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from major forecasters, underpins trader consensus. Both candidates cleared primaries without opposition, and fundraising remains competitive yet secondary to structural factors. Ehr has conducted outreach such as a veterans’ bike tour and secured a cross-party endorsement, but these efforts have not altered the race’s fundamentals. An independent candidate appears on the ballot but draws minimal projected support. Late developments such as turnout shifts in Miami-Dade or Monroe counties, major scandals, or health events could still influence the final margin.