Iowa’s open Senate seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement has positioned the state as the most competitive Great Plains contest, with polls showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek in a near-dead heat amid agricultural economic pressures from tariffs, delayed farm legislation, and input costs. Forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting the absence of incumbency and voter concerns in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska’s race features Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, whose strong 2024 performance keeps the contest closer than typical but still favors the incumbent per most ratings. Kansas remains the least contested, with Republican Roger Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state where recent surveys show a narrowing but still Republican-leaning margin. Trader consensus reflects Iowa’s unique combination of an open seat and polling volatility relative to the other two.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIowa 43%
Nebraska 35%
Kansas 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Iowa
44%
Nebraska
35%
Kansas
23%
Iowa 43%
Nebraska 35%
Kansas 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Iowa
$411 Vol.
44%
Nebraska
$150 Vol.
35%
Kansas
$103 Vol.
23%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa’s open Senate seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement has positioned the state as the most competitive Great Plains contest, with polls showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek in a near-dead heat amid agricultural economic pressures from tariffs, delayed farm legislation, and input costs. Forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting the absence of incumbency and voter concerns in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska’s race features Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, whose strong 2024 performance keeps the contest closer than typical but still favors the incumbent per most ratings. Kansas remains the least contested, with Republican Roger Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state where recent surveys show a narrowing but still Republican-leaning margin. Trader consensus reflects Iowa’s unique combination of an open seat and polling volatility relative to the other two.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$664Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa’s open Senate seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement has positioned the state as the most competitive Great Plains contest, with polls showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek in a near-dead heat amid agricultural economic pressures from tariffs, delayed farm legislation, and input costs. Forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting the absence of incumbency and voter concerns in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska’s race features Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, whose strong 2024 performance keeps the contest closer than typical but still favors the incumbent per most ratings. Kansas remains the least contested, with Republican Roger Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state where recent surveys show a narrowing but still Republican-leaning margin. Trader consensus reflects Iowa’s unique combination of an open seat and polling volatility relative to the other two.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$664Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Iowa’s open Senate seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement has positioned the state as the most competitive Great Plains contest, with polls showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek in a near-dead heat amid agricultural economic pressures from tariffs, delayed farm legislation, and input costs. Forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting the absence of incumbency and voter concerns in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska’s race features Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, whose strong 2024 performance keeps the contest closer than typical but still favors the incumbent per most ratings. Kansas remains the least contested, with Republican Roger Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state where recent surveys show a narrowing but still Republican-leaning margin. Trader consensus reflects Iowa’s unique combination of an open seat and polling volatility relative to the other two.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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