Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'île du Grand Tunb n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par… ?
L'île du Grand Tunb n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par… ?
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
31 juillet
3%
31 août
11%
$572 Vol.
31 juillet
$572 Vol.
3%
31 août
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$572Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$572Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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