Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'île du Grand Tunb n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par… ?
L'île du Grand Tunb n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par… ?
$50,409 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
1%
$50,409 Vol.
31 août
$27,900 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$50,409Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,409Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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