Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability against a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the contained multi-country cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship reported May 2, where WHO confirmed 11 cases (9 laboratory-verified Andes virus, 2 probable) and 3 deaths as of May 12—all isolated among passengers and crew with no evidence of broader community spread. CDC and WHO assess global public health risk as low, citing Andes virus's rare, close-contact human-to-human transmission (unlike rodent aerosol primary route) and effective containment via medical evacuations, 42-day contact monitoring through June, and no new cases or deaths since early May. Historical U.S. data shows only ~30 annual Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases since 1993, far below pandemic thresholds for sustained international transmission. Realistic challenges include undetected chains among 150 repatriated individuals or viral adaptations enhancing transmissibility, though model consensus and epidemiological links indicate low likelihood pending ongoing surveillance updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Pandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Oui
$9,179,683 Vol.
$9,179,683 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$9,179,683 Vol.
$9,179,683 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability against a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the contained multi-country cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship reported May 2, where WHO confirmed 11 cases (9 laboratory-verified Andes virus, 2 probable) and 3 deaths as of May 12—all isolated among passengers and crew with no evidence of broader community spread. CDC and WHO assess global public health risk as low, citing Andes virus's rare, close-contact human-to-human transmission (unlike rodent aerosol primary route) and effective containment via medical evacuations, 42-day contact monitoring through June, and no new cases or deaths since early May. Historical U.S. data shows only ~30 annual Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases since 1993, far below pandemic thresholds for sustained international transmission. Realistic challenges include undetected chains among 150 repatriated individuals or viral adaptations enhancing transmissibility, though model consensus and epidemiological links indicate low likelihood pending ongoing surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$9,179,683Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability against a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the contained multi-country cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship reported May 2, where WHO confirmed 11 cases (9 laboratory-verified Andes virus, 2 probable) and 3 deaths as of May 12—all isolated among passengers and crew with no evidence of broader community spread. CDC and WHO assess global public health risk as low, citing Andes virus's rare, close-contact human-to-human transmission (unlike rodent aerosol primary route) and effective containment via medical evacuations, 42-day contact monitoring through June, and no new cases or deaths since early May. Historical U.S. data shows only ~30 annual Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases since 1993, far below pandemic thresholds for sustained international transmission. Realistic challenges include undetected chains among 150 repatriated individuals or viral adaptations enhancing transmissibility, though model consensus and epidemiological links indicate low likelihood pending ongoing surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,181,039Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability against a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the contained multi-country cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship reported May 2, where WHO confirmed 11 cases (9 laboratory-verified Andes virus, 2 probable) and 3 deaths as of May 12—all isolated among passengers and crew with no evidence of broader community spread. CDC and WHO assess global public health risk as low, citing Andes virus's rare, close-contact human-to-human transmission (unlike rodent aerosol primary route) and effective containment via medical evacuations, 42-day contact monitoring through June, and no new cases or deaths since early May. Historical U.S. data shows only ~30 annual Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases since 1993, far below pandemic thresholds for sustained international transmission. Realistic challenges include undetected chains among 150 repatriated individuals or viral adaptations enhancing transmissibility, though model consensus and epidemiological links indicate low likelihood pending ongoing surveillance updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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