Trader consensus heavily favors no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 96% implied probability because the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 total cases with three deaths before containment by July. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed limited person-to-person spread confined to close contacts, with no efficient community transmission or escalation beyond the initial group of international passengers. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses with low baseline incidence and no documented pandemic potential under current conditions. Ongoing monitoring through August shows no additional confirmed cases or sustained chains of infection. A shift would require unexpected viral evolution enabling broader airborne spread or undetected community clusters emerging before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Pandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
$17,792,519 Vol.
$17,792,519 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$17,792,519 Vol.
$17,792,519 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 96% implied probability because the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 total cases with three deaths before containment by July. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed limited person-to-person spread confined to close contacts, with no efficient community transmission or escalation beyond the initial group of international passengers. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses with low baseline incidence and no documented pandemic potential under current conditions. Ongoing monitoring through August shows no additional confirmed cases or sustained chains of infection. A shift would require unexpected viral evolution enabling broader airborne spread or undetected community clusters emerging before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,792,519Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 96% implied probability because the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 total cases with three deaths before containment by July. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed limited person-to-person spread confined to close contacts, with no efficient community transmission or escalation beyond the initial group of international passengers. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses with low baseline incidence and no documented pandemic potential under current conditions. Ongoing monitoring through August shows no additional confirmed cases or sustained chains of infection. A shift would require unexpected viral evolution enabling broader airborne spread or undetected community clusters emerging before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,792,519Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 96% implied probability because the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 total cases with three deaths before containment by July. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed limited person-to-person spread confined to close contacts, with no efficient community transmission or escalation beyond the initial group of international passengers. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses with low baseline incidence and no documented pandemic potential under current conditions. Ongoing monitoring through August shows no additional confirmed cases or sustained chains of infection. A shift would require unexpected viral evolution enabling broader airborne spread or undetected community clusters emerging before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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