Ongoing military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026 amid the broader crisis that began in February, have not altered Iranian sovereignty over the island, which lies in Hormuzgan Province near Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert control through naval patrols, IRGC operations, and regulatory measures via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, while US naval escorts and aerial actions target infrastructure without evidence of territorial occupation or handover. Diplomatic efforts and partial maritime agreements have so far failed to produce a resolution shifting island administration. With the market resolving by late August 2026, traders assess low likelihood of any rapid escalation—such as a foreign military landing or enforced demilitarization—overcoming Iran's entrenched military presence and geographic advantages in the Persian Gulf.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'île de Hengam n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par... ?
L'île de Hengam n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par... ?
$120,915 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
1%
$120,915 Vol.
31 août
$93,367 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026 amid the broader crisis that began in February, have not altered Iranian sovereignty over the island, which lies in Hormuzgan Province near Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert control through naval patrols, IRGC operations, and regulatory measures via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, while US naval escorts and aerial actions target infrastructure without evidence of territorial occupation or handover. Diplomatic efforts and partial maritime agreements have so far failed to produce a resolution shifting island administration. With the market resolving by late August 2026, traders assess low likelihood of any rapid escalation—such as a foreign military landing or enforced demilitarization—overcoming Iran's entrenched military presence and geographic advantages in the Persian Gulf.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$120,915Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026 amid the broader crisis that began in February, have not altered Iranian sovereignty over the island, which lies in Hormuzgan Province near Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert control through naval patrols, IRGC operations, and regulatory measures via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, while US naval escorts and aerial actions target infrastructure without evidence of territorial occupation or handover. Diplomatic efforts and partial maritime agreements have so far failed to produce a resolution shifting island administration. With the market resolving by late August 2026, traders assess low likelihood of any rapid escalation—such as a foreign military landing or enforced demilitarization—overcoming Iran's entrenched military presence and geographic advantages in the Persian Gulf.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,915Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026 amid the broader crisis that began in February, have not altered Iranian sovereignty over the island, which lies in Hormuzgan Province near Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert control through naval patrols, IRGC operations, and regulatory measures via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, while US naval escorts and aerial actions target infrastructure without evidence of territorial occupation or handover. Diplomatic efforts and partial maritime agreements have so far failed to produce a resolution shifting island administration. With the market resolving by late August 2026, traders assess low likelihood of any rapid escalation—such as a foreign military landing or enforced demilitarization—overcoming Iran's entrenched military presence and geographic advantages in the Persian Gulf.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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