Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHI-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
HI-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$35,259 Vol.
$35,259 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
96%
Parti républicain
5%
$35,259 Vol.
$35,259 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$14,953 Vol.
96%
Parti républicain
$20,305 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,259Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,259Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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