Grok models currently trail frontier performance on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at roughly 43% on recent Artificial Analysis and no-tools leaderboards versus Claude Fable 5.1 leading at 59–65%. Trader sentiment favors outcomes above 45% because xAI has delivered steady gains through successive 4.x releases and scale, yet the gap to Anthropic’s reasoning-optimized models persists amid rapid industry progress. With only months left in 2026, key catalysts include any Grok 5 launch or heavy reasoning variant, though verified closed-book results would need substantial jumps to shift probabilities on higher thresholds like 55%+.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$117,643 Vol.
45 %+
77%
50 %+
45%
55 % +
31%
60 % +
20%
65 %+
4%
$117,643 Vol.
45 %+
77%
50 %+
45%
55 % +
31%
60 % +
20%
65 %+
4%
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Source de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Grok models currently trail frontier performance on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at roughly 43% on recent Artificial Analysis and no-tools leaderboards versus Claude Fable 5.1 leading at 59–65%. Trader sentiment favors outcomes above 45% because xAI has delivered steady gains through successive 4.x releases and scale, yet the gap to Anthropic’s reasoning-optimized models persists amid rapid industry progress. With only months left in 2026, key catalysts include any Grok 5 launch or heavy reasoning variant, though verified closed-book results would need substantial jumps to shift probabilities on higher thresholds like 55%+.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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