Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 launch in July 2026 delivered the strongest recent gains for the series, posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 65% and 64.7%. Traders view Kimi’s 2.8-trillion-parameter scale, large context window, and agentic tool-use training as key enablers for further incremental progress before year-end, yet HLE’s expert-authored questions across math, science, and humanities limit rapid jumps. Competitive pressure from OpenAI GPT-5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark, plus typical model-release timelines, frames the market-implied odds on thresholds like 55%+ or 60%+ as a contest between continued Chinese lab momentum and the broader frontier pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$61,788 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
45 % ou plus
79%
50 %+
29%
55 %+
19%
60 %+
11%
65 %+
7%
$61,788 Vol.
45 % ou plus
$14,918 Vol.
79%
50 %+
$23,524 Vol.
29%
55 %+
$11,797 Vol.
19%
60 %+
$9,718 Vol.
11%
65 %+
$1,832 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 launch in July 2026 delivered the strongest recent gains for the series, posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 65% and 64.7%. Traders view Kimi’s 2.8-trillion-parameter scale, large context window, and agentic tool-use training as key enablers for further incremental progress before year-end, yet HLE’s expert-authored questions across math, science, and humanities limit rapid jumps. Competitive pressure from OpenAI GPT-5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark, plus typical model-release timelines, frames the market-implied odds on thresholds like 55%+ or 60%+ as a contest between continued Chinese lab momentum and the broader frontier pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$61,788Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 launch in July 2026 delivered the strongest recent gains for the series, posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 65% and 64.7%. Traders view Kimi’s 2.8-trillion-parameter scale, large context window, and agentic tool-use training as key enablers for further incremental progress before year-end, yet HLE’s expert-authored questions across math, science, and humanities limit rapid jumps. Competitive pressure from OpenAI GPT-5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark, plus typical model-release timelines, frames the market-implied odds on thresholds like 55%+ or 60%+ as a contest between continued Chinese lab momentum and the broader frontier pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$61,788Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 launch in July 2026 delivered the strongest recent gains for the series, posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 65% and 64.7%. Traders view Kimi’s 2.8-trillion-parameter scale, large context window, and agentic tool-use training as key enablers for further incremental progress before year-end, yet HLE’s expert-authored questions across math, science, and humanities limit rapid jumps. Competitive pressure from OpenAI GPT-5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark, plus typical model-release timelines, frames the market-implied odds on thresholds like 55%+ or 60%+ as a contest between continued Chinese lab momentum and the broader frontier pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le score le plus élevé obtenu à l’Ultime Exam de l’Humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 60% ou plus ?
44%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle OpenAI lors du Dernier Examen de l’Humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
77%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle Meta à l’ultime examen de l’humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
33%
Oui
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