Latest numerical weather prediction models from regional centers show a broad consensus for daytime maxima in the upper 30s Celsius on July 10, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and limited cloud cover over the Sichuan Basin, though scattered monsoon moisture could cap peaks near 37–38 °C. Historical July climatology places average highs near 33 °C, with occasional excursions above 38 °C when subsidence strengthens; current ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and local urban heat-island effects. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 38 °C because recent model runs cluster there, while lower odds for 40 °C+ reflect the narrow window for additional warming before any frontal passage. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and next 12–24 h model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.