Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 10?
19°C 41%
18°C 27%
20°C 15%
17°C 8.9%
NOUVEAU
$16,911 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$16,911 Vol.
10 juil. 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
3%
17°C
9%
18°C
27%
19°C
41%
20°C
15%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 41%
18°C 27%
20°C 15%
17°C 8.9%
NOUVEAU
$16,911 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$16,911 Vol.
10 juil. 2026
13°C or below
$330 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$515 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$785 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,424 Vol.
3%
17°C
$2,233 Vol.
9%
18°C
$1,899 Vol.
27%
19°C
$2,645 Vol.
41%
20°C
$3,991 Vol.
15%
21°C
$1,570 Vol.
1%
22°C
$812 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$715 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$16,911Date de fin
10 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,911Date de fin
10 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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