**Arizona's nine congressional districts feature three seats currently held by Democrats that rate as safe or solid in nonpartisan forecasts, while two Republican-held seats—the open AZ-1 and AZ-6—stand as the primary battlegrounds rated toss-ups or leans by outlets including the Cook Political Report.** Trader consensus around four or five Democratic seats reflects the potential for one or two flips in these competitive Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts, where candidate matchups, fundraising, and national midterm dynamics could determine outcomes. Recent primary results and campaign activity have not yet produced decisive shifts, leaving the races sensitive to turnout patterns and late-cycle developments ahead of the November 2026 election. The lower probabilities assigned to three or six-plus seats align with historical performance in these districts and limited structural advantages for either party outside the toss-ups.